| Percentage Increase | H2 | NG Reforming Cost | Cost of purification | Cost of liquefaction | Cost of handling, gasification,storage and dispensing @ 6,250 psig | Delivery from a central production location to station | Other | ||||||||
| Diesel (1) | ULSD (2) | NG (3) | H2 (4) | Electricity (5) | Proportion | 30% | 1% | 11% | 22% | 25% | 11% | ||||
| 2006 | 8.91% | 8.91% | 16.25% | 9.39% | 7.55% | 1.00 | 2006 | 4.88% | 0.08% | 0.008305 | 0.55% | 0.022275 | 0.83% | ||
| 2007 | 9.00% | 9.00% | 17.02% | 15.17% | 31.58% | 1.151694 | 2007 | 5.11% | 0.32% | 0.034738 | 0.55% | 0.0225 | 3.47% | ||
| 2008 | 3.00% | 3.00% | -1.82% | -0.17% | -4.00% | 1.14978219 | 2008 | -0.55% | -0.04% | -0.0044 | 0.55% | 0.0075 | -0.44% | ||
| 2009 | 1.29% | 1.29% | -1.82% | 1.29% | 4.17% | 1.16456379 | 2009 | -0.55% | 0.04% | 0.004587 | 0.55% | 0.003225 | 0.46% | ||
| 2010 | 1.52% | 1.52% | 19.23% | 7.27% | 2.50% | 1.24927416 | 2010 | 5.77% | 0.03% | 0.00275 | 0.55% | 0.0038 | 0.28% | ||
| 2011 | 7.51% | 7.51% | -5.16% | 1.45% | 2.50% | 1.26744485 | 2011 | -1.55% | 0.03% | 0.00275 | 0.55% | 0.018775 | 0.28% | ||
| 2012 | 4.30% | 4.30% | -11.73% | -1.32% | 2.50% | 1.25072725 | 2012 | -3.52% | 0.03% | 0.00275 | 0.55% | 0.01075 | 0.28% | ||
| 2013 | 2.05% | 2.05% | 2.10% | 2.27% | 2.50% | 1.27908749 | 2013 | 0.63% | 0.03% | 0.00275 | 0.55% | 0.005125 | 0.28% | ||
| 2014 | 3.44% | 3.44% | 1.36% | 2.39% | 2.50% | 1.30969606 | 2014 | 0.41% | 0.03% | 0.00275 | 0.55% | 0.0086 | 0.28% | ||
| 2015 | 4.66% | 4.66% | 16.25% | 7.17% | 2.50% | 1.40353578 | 2015 | 4.88% | 0.03% | 0.00275 | 0.55% | 0.01165 | 0.28% | ||
| 2016 | 1.65% | 1.65% | 2.68% | 2.34% | 2.50% | 1.43639957 | 2016 | 0.80% | 0.03% | 0.00275 | 0.55% | 0.004125 | 0.28% | ||
| 2017 | 0.39% | 0.39% | 6.85% | 3.28% | 2.50% | 1.48347757 | 2017 | 2.06% | 0.03% | 0.00275 | 0.55% | 0.000975 | 0.28% | ||
| 2018 | 2.10% | 2.10% | 2.56% | 2.42% | 2.50% | 1.51934805 | 2018 | 0.77% | 0.03% | 0.00275 | 0.55% | 0.00525 | 0.28% | ||
| 2019 | 2.59% | 2.59% | 2.00% | 2.37% | 2.50% | 1.55539459 | 2019 | 0.60% | 0.03% | 0.00275 | 0.55% | 0.006475 | 0.28% | ||
| 2020 | 2.23% | 2.23% | 2.00% | 2.28% | 2.50% | 1.59089647 | 2020 | 0.60% | 0.03% | 0.00275 | 0.55% | 0.005575 | 0.28% | ||
| 2021 | 1.03% | 1.03% | 2.00% | 1.98% | 2.50% | 1.62243599 | 2021 | 0.60% | 0.03% | 0.00275 | 0.55% | 0.002575 | 0.28% | ||
| 2022 | 1.02% | 1.02% | 2.00% | 1.98% | 2.50% | 1.65456022 | 2022 | 0.60% | 0.03% | 0.00275 | 0.55% | 0.00255 | 0.28% | ||
| 2023 | 1.04% | 1.04% | 2.00% | 1.99% | 2.50% | 1.68740324 | 2023 | 0.60% | 0.03% | 0.00275 | 0.55% | 0.0026 | 0.28% | ||
| 2024 | -1.49% | -1.49% | 2.00% | 1.35% | 2.50% | 1.71022537 | 2024 | 0.60% | 0.03% | 0.00275 | 0.55% | -0.00373 | 0.28% | ||
| 2025 | 1.13% | 1.13% | 2.00% | 2.01% | 2.50% | 1.74455815 | 2025 | 0.60% | 0.03% | 0.00275 | 0.55% | 0.002825 | 0.28% | ||
| 2026 | 3.38% | 3.38% | 2.00% | 2.57% | 2.50% | 1.78939329 | 2026 | 0.60% | 0.03% | 0.00275 | 0.55% | 0.00845 | 0.28% | ||
| 2027 | 1.00% | 1.00% | 0.0025 | ||||||||||||
| 2028 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0 | ||||||||||||
| 2.59% | 2.59% | 3.18% | 3.00% | 3.71% | |||||||||||
| Sources: | |||||||||||||||
| (1) | Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with projections to 2030, December 2005, Industrial - Distillate Fuel | ||||||||||||||
| (2) | |||||||||||||||
| (3) | GLJ Petroleum Consultants, Price Forecast - Alberta Plant Gate, July 1 2006. | ||||||||||||||
| (4) | |||||||||||||||
| (5) | The Delphi Group, Ontario Five Year Wholesale Power Price Forecast, October 2004 | ||||||||||||||
| Rationale: | |||||||||||||||
| (1) | Retail diesel fuel prices are likely to remain elevated as long as some Gulf of Mexico refineries remain shut down and the US distillate market continues to stretch supplies to the limit. Moreover, the price of diesel is likely to increase due to the higher cost of producing ULSD (Source : EIA) | ||||||||||||||
| (2) | |||||||||||||||
| (3) | On a long term basis, rising prices influenced by : production decrease and demand growth. Moreover, between 2004 and 2010, the Natural Gas comsumption in Ontario will increase strongly (pessimist scenario : +46% vs optimist scenario : +289%). Source : Athena Marketing Energy. | ||||||||||||||
| (4) | |||||||||||||||
| (5) | Over the next 5-15 years, a 15,000 MW gap will be created between supply and demand due to the retirement 0f 7,500MW of Coal generation and an increase of 8,000MW of peak demand. Wholesale prices in Ontario will average $70-90 per delivered MWh, with prices spikes reflecting gas price volatility. The table below presents the diferents scenarios for price evolution between 2005 and 2009: | ||||||||||||||
| Wholesale Electricity - Annual High Price Scenarios | |||||||||||||||
| Year | Weighted Average Price | Explanation | |||||||||||||
| 2005 | $53 MW/h | Base Case: Reflects the prices experienced over the last year. 50% of the time prices are in the $35 range, and in the $70 range the other half of the day. | |||||||||||||
| 2006 | $57 MW/h | Scenario
A: Lakeview Coal plant is shut down removing 20% of the coal generation. 38% (9hrs) of the day the Hourly Ontario Electricity Price (HOEP) is in the low price range, and 62% of the time it is set by higher priced gas generation and peaking plants. |
|||||||||||||
| 2007 | $75 MW/h | Scenario B: The rest of the Coal is shut down. The HOEP is in the high price range 100% of the time. Average price is thus set somewhere in the $60 to $90 range. Even over night, during off peak hours there in not enough low cost capacity to move prices into the lower levels set by the nuclear generating stations. | |||||||||||||
| 2008 | $72 MW/h | Scenario C: Nuclear refurbishment leads to an additional 5% of supply coming from Pickering generating station. As a result, the demand line is closer in the illustration to lower priced generation. While the demand line remains in the higher priced category of supply, it is in the lower end of that range for more hours than in Scenario B. The distribution is approximately 40% of the time at $60/MWh, 40% at $75/MWh and 20% at 90/MWh. | |||||||||||||
| Source: The Delphi Group | |||||||||||||||