Report to/Rapport au :
Comité de l'urbanisme
and Council / et au Conseil
27 March 2012 / le 27 mars 2012
Submitted by/Soumis par : Nancy Schepers, Deputy City Manager, Directrice municipale adjointe, Planning and Infrastructure/Urbanisme et Infrastructure
Contact Person/Personne-ressource : Richard Kilstrom, Manager/Gestionnaire, Policy Development and Urban Design/Élaboration de la politique et conception urbaine, Planning and Growth Management/Urbanisme et Gestion de la croissance Élaboration de la politique et conception urbaine
(613) 580-2424 x22653, Richard.Kilstrom@ottawa.ca
|
SUBJECT: |
|
|
|
|
|
OBJET : |
RÉSULTATS DU RECENSEMENT DE 2011 ET RAPPORT AVEC LES PROJECTIONS DÉMOGRAPHIQUES |
REPORT RECOMMENDATION
That Planning Committee recommend Council receive this report for information purposes.
RECOMMANDATION DU RAPPORT
Que le Comité de l’urbanisme recommande au Conseil de prendre connaissance de ce rapport.
BACKGROUND
Statistics Canada released the first data from the 2011 Census, counts of total population and dwelling units, on February 8, 2012. The 2011 Census population of Ottawa was 883,391, a growth of 8.8 per cent from the 2006 Census. The population of the Ottawa-Gatineau Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) was 1,133,633, representing 9.1 per cent growth from 2006.
Ottawa continues to be Canada's fourth largest city in census population, behind Toronto, Montreal and Calgary, and Ottawa-Gatineau the fourth largest CMA, behind Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver.
Additional information on the 2011 Census is available at the following link:
http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/index-eng.cfm
DISCUSSION
Undercounting in the 2006 Census
Staff identified a concern with apparent undercounting in the 2006 Census in a report to the Planning and Environment Committee meeting of April 24, 2007 (linked below).
http://ottawa.ca/calendar/ottawa/citycouncil/pec/2007/04-24/ACS2007-PTE-POL-0024%20ENGLISH.htm
The primary issue with the 2006 Census centred on the growth in occupied dwelling units. The Census showed an increase of only 19,113 occupied units in Ottawa between the 2001 Census and 2006 Census. In contrast, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) recorded almost 30,600 housing completions during the same period. Similarly, building permits indicated an increase of about 31,800 occupied units (permits are typically slightly higher than CMHC because they include units created via additions and conversions). It therefore appeared the 2006 Census had potentially omitted a significant number of occupied units, in the range of 10,000 or more, resulting in a substantial undercount of population and households.
The 2011 Census reported significantly higher growth between 2006 and 2011 compared to the 2001-06 census period. Households (occupied dwelling units) increased by 6.3% (+19,113) between 2001 and 2006, but grew by 10.1% (+32,356) between 2006 and 2011. However, growth in CMHC completions, households from permits, and total census dwellings (including not occupied) show close to a 50-50 split between the two time periods. When the entire 2001-2011 decade is compared between census counts, housing completions and permits data, the undercount issues identified in the 2006 Census appear to have been largely resolved in the 2011 Census.
Table 1 summarizes the increase in census total dwellings and occupied dwellings compared to CMHC completions and new households estimated from building permits for the periods 2001-06 and 2006-11.
|
Table 1. Census Dwellings and Households Compared to Completions and Permits, 2001-2011 |
|||||
|
|
Census Total Dwellings* |
Census Occupied Dwellings** |
CMHC Housing Completions |
Occupied Units from Building Permits |
|
|
Period |
Growth |
Growth |
Growth |
Growth |
|
|
2001-06 |
30,600 |
19,113 |
30,592 |
31,795 |
|
|
2006-11 |
29,485 |
32,356 |
29,385 |
28,570 |
|
|
2001-11 |
60,085 |
51,469 |
59,977 |
60,365 |
|
|
* total including not occupied |
|||||
|
** equivalent to households |
|||||
Post-Censal Estimates
Statistics Canada reports two sets of numbers for population; the census population, reported every five years, and the “post-censal estimate”, reported annually. Post-censal figures are adjusted to compensate for undercounts in the census because inevitably some people are not enumerated. Typically, the census undercount is in the range of three to four per cent. Final numbers are not established until two years after the census, so at this point we do not know the undercount for the 2011 Census.
Ottawa’s 2006 Census population was 812,129. The final post-censal estimate issued in 2008 restated the city’s 2006 population as 845,917, reflecting a 4.2 per cent undercount. Applying the same percentage undercount as in 2006 to the new census produces a population estimate for 2011 of about 920,500 (Table 2).
|
Table 2. Census Population Compared to Post-Censal Estimate and City Estimates |
|||||||
|
Census |
Census Pop'n. |
Increase |
Post-censal Pop'n. * |
Increase |
% above census |
City est. Pop'n. |
Increase |
|
2001 |
774,072 |
- |
806,972 |
- |
4.3% |
806,560 |
- |
|
2006 |
812,129 |
38,057 |
845,917 |
38,945 |
4.2% |
870,757 |
64,197 |
|
2011 |
883,391 |
71,262 |
920,493 |
74,576 |
4.2% |
922,046 |
51,289 |
|
2001-11 |
|
109,319 |
|
113,521 |
|
|
115,486 |
|
* assuming the same undercount rate in 2011 as in 2006 |
|||||||
The City’s estimate of population for mid-2011 is 922,046 using the "dwelling occupancy" method. This is based on the 2001 post-censal estimate and adds population each subsequent year derived from new housing units issued building permits, adjusting for demolitions, vacancy rates, construction time and average adjusted household size by dwelling type. For 2006 the City estimate was higher than Statistics Canada’s post-censal population by 24,840 or 2.9%. Owing to concerns with 2006 Census undercounting, staff based the current 2006-2031 population projections, adopted by Council in 2007, on the City estimate of the 2006 population, not Statistics Canada’s preliminary post-censal estimate for 2006.
As noted, assuming the same undercount in the 2011 Census as existed in 2006 would indicate an Ottawa population of about 920,500. The difference between the post-censal population and the City estimate of population for mid-2011 is only 1,550 or 0.2%.
Population Projections
The population projections contained in the Official Plan (adopted in OPA 76 and approved by the Ontario Municipal Board (OMB) in 2011) extend to 2031. As outlined above, using the 4.2% benchmark to correct for Census undercount, Ottawa’s mid-2011 population would be about 920,500. The Official Plan projection called for a population of 923,000 at that point. The difference of 2,500 (0.3%) is minimal. The projection is also tracking the City estimate of population closely, with a difference of less than 1,000 or 0.1%.
RURAL IMPLICATIONS
There are no direct rural implications associated with this report.
CONSULTATION
As this report concerns research and analysis matters, no public consultation was undertaken.
COMMENTS BY THE WARD COUNCILLORS
Not applicable – City-wide report.
LEGAL IMPLICATIONS
There are no direct legal implications associated with this report.
RISK MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONS
The city’s growth is monitored by planning staff on an ongoing basis. Consequently the risk that Council’s approved population projections will go significantly awry before corrective action can be taken is minimal.
FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS
There are no financial implications associated with this information report.
ACCESSIBILITY IMPACT
There are no accessibility issues associated with this report.
TECHNOLOGY IMPLICATIONS
There are no direct technical implications associated with this report.
TERM OF COUNCIL PRIORITIES
This report is consistent with the City Strategic Plan objective to make sustainable choices in planning and decision-making.
SUPPORTING DOCUMENTATION
N/A
DISPOSITION