Report
to/Rapport au :
Planning
and Environment Committee
Comité de l'urbanisme et de
l'environnement
Agriculture
and Rural Affairs Committee
Comité de l’agriculture et des questions
rurales
and Council / et au Conseil
27 October 2007 / le 27 octobre 2007
Submitted by/Soumis par : Nancy Schepers, Deputy City Manager /
Directrice municipale adjointe,
Planning, Transit and the Environment /
Urbanisme, Transport en commun et
Environnement
Contact Person/Personne Ressource : Richard
Kilstrom, Manager / Gestionnaire, Community Planning and Design / Aménagement
et Conception communautaires
(613) 580-2424, 22653 Richard.Kilstrom@ottawa.ca
REPORT RECOMMENDATION
That the Agriculture and Rural Affairs Committee and the Planning and
Environment Committee recommend that Council adopt the Reference Projection of
approximately 1,136,000 population, 496,000 households and 703,000 jobs in the
City of Ottawa by 2031 as the basis for the Official Plan and related Master
Plans review.
RECOMMANDATION DU RAPPORT
Que le Comité de
l'agriculture et des affaires rurales et le Comité de l’urbanisme et de
l’environnement recommandent au Conseil d’adopter la projection de référence
estimant le nombre de la population à 1 136 000, le nombre des ménages à
496 000 et le nombre d’emplois à 703 000 dans la Ville d’Ottawa d’ici 2031, comme base pour l’examen du Plan
officiel et des plans directeurs connexes.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Assumptions
and Analysis:
New long-range projections of population, households, and employment have been prepared by City staff to be used as the basis for the Official Plan (OP) review and the Master Plans for Transportation and Infrastructure. Three scenarios were developed, comprised of Low, Reference and High projections. It is recommended the Reference Projection be used for the OP Review and Master Plans. The new projection extends to 2031, a decade further than the current OP forecast.
The recommended Reference Projection of 1,136,000 population, 496,000 households and 703,000 jobs by 2031 is lower than the current OP to 2021 by five per cent, one per cent and six per cent, respectively. Population is lower due to lower in-migration based on past and projected patterns, households are lower by a smaller margin due to shrinking household sizes as the population ages, and jobs are lower by a slightly larger margin due to retirements among aging baby boomers.
The projections deal only with city-wide growth. The distribution of growth among sub-areas of Ottawa, including the rural area, will be discussed in 2008. The question of how the projections translate into the need for urban land is also to be dealt with in 2008.
Projections have also been prepared for the City of Gatineau and adjacent areas in Ontario and Quebec to take account of the entire economic area and its commutershed. Outer areas are projected to grow at a slightly faster rate than Ottawa, but the city will continue to account for approximately two-thirds of the entire area’s population.
The peer review of the projections by Hemson Consulting concluded that they are a reasonable outlook for Ottawa’s growth and form a sound basis for long-term planning. They advised caution on three specific matters but concluded that those effects on the projection were small and that no revision was warranted at this point.
Financial
Implications:
Approval of the report has no direct funding implication but will have an impact on future review of the Long Range Financial Plan, Development Charge Background Study and various Operating and Capital Budgets.
Public
Consultation/Input:
Draft results of the projections were presented to a public information session held on September 17, 2007 and to several other groups through September and October. A range of comments was received, including what population to use for the 2006 base year, growth outside of Ottawa, the accuracy of past projections, whether the projections were too low or high, which of the two housing projections should be used, and if there was enough urban land designated.
RÉSUMÉ
Hypothèses et analyse
De nouvelles
projections à long terme portant sur la population, les ménages et l’emploi ont
été préparées par le personnel de la Ville et serviront de fondement à la
révision du Plan officiel, du Plan directeur des transports et du Plan
directeur de l’infrastructure. Trois scénarios ont été envisagés,
représentant respectivement des projections prudentes, de référence et
ambitieuses. Il est recommandé d’utiliser les projections de référence pour la
révision du Plan officiel et des plans directeurs. La portée des nouvelles
projections a été étendue jusqu’en 2031, soit dix ans de plus que les
prévisions actuelles du Plan officiel.
Selon les projections de référence recommandées, Ottawa comptera
1 136 000 habitants, 496 000 ménages et
703 000 emplois d’ici 2031, ce qui représente, par rapport aux
prévisions actuelles du Plan officiel pour 2021, une diminution respective de
l’ordre de 5 pour cent, de 1 pour cent et de 6 pour cent. La
réduction de la projection pour la population tient à la révision à la baisse
du nombre de personnes qui s’établiront à Ottawa compte tenu des tendances
passées et prévues. La projection du nombre de ménages a également été revue à
la baisse, quoique dans une moindre mesure, en raison de la diminution de la
taille des ménages à mesure que la population vieillit. Quant à la réduction du
nombre d’emplois prévus, elle est légèrement plus importante et attribuée au
départ à la retraite des baby-boomers.
Les projections ne portent que sur la croissance à l’échelle de la ville.
La répartition de cette croissance parmi les sous-secteurs d’Ottawa, y compris
le secteur rural, sera examinée en 2008, tout comme la question de
déterminer comment les projections se traduiront en termes de besoins
d’aménagement urbain.
Des projections ont également été produites pour la ville de Gatineau et
les municipalités de l’Ontario et du Québec adjacentes à Ottawa et à Gatineau
pour tenir compte de l’ensemble de l’activité économique de la région et de son
bassin de navetteurs. Il est prévu que le rythme de croissance sera légèrement
plus élevé dans les secteurs périphériques qu’à Ottawa, mais la ville
continuera de représenter environ les deux tiers de la population de l’ensemble
de la région.
Dans son évaluation des projections par les pairs, le cabinet Hemson
Consulting est parvenu à la conclusion qu’elles constituent un tableau
raisonnable de la croissance d’Ottawa et un fondement fiable pour la
planification à long terme. Le cabinet a relevé trois points précis où il
recommande à la Ville d’user de prudence, mais conclut qu’ils n’ont qu’une
faible portée sur les projections et qu’aucune révision ne semble justifiée
pour le moment.
Répercussions financières
L’approbation du rapport n’a pas de répercussions financières directes,
mais aura une incidence sur les prochaines révisions du Plan financier à long
terme, de l’Étude préliminaire sur les redevances d’aménagement et de divers
budgets de fonctionnement et des immobilisations.
Consultation publique/commentaires
Un rapport préliminaire sur les projections a été présenté à une séance
d’information publique le 17 septembre 2007 ainsi qu’à plusieurs
autres réunions de groupes d’intérêt au cours des mois de septembre et
d’octobre. Les commentaires recueillis abordaient des sujets très variés :
la population à utiliser pour l’année de référence (2006), la croissance à l’extérieur
d’Ottawa, le degré d’exactitude des projections passées, l’aspect jugé trop
prudent ou trop ambitieux de certaines projections, laquelle des deux
projections relatives au logement devrait être utilisée, et la nécessité
d’étendre le territoire désigné secteur urbain.
BACKGROUND
Long-term projections of Ottawa's growth in population, housing and employment are an essential part of planning how we want our city to grow and how we will respond to emerging challenges. They are therefore fundamental to the review of the Official Plan (OP) and Master Plans for Transportation and Infrastructure. They are also the basis for a wide variety of other planning, including development charges, housing, infrastructure, and human and other services. The projections are updated approximately every five years.
A draft report was tabled at Planning and Environment Committee on September 25, 2007. The Agriculture and Rural Affairs Committee chose to discuss the report along with the recommended Reference projection at its November meeting. An earlier background report was presented to both Committees and to Council in June which set out the proposed methodology and basic assumptions to be used in the projections update.
Through September and October staff meet with several groups and responded to questions and other inquiries. The purpose of this report is to summarize the comments received and to recommend a Reference Projection that would be used as the basis of the Official Plan review.
DISCUSSION
New projections of population, households and housing, and employment to 2031 have been undertaken by City staff.
The mid-2006 starting point of the projections uses the City population estimate of 870,800. As noted in previous reports to Committee, staff are of the opinion that this figure best reflects the population for which the City provides services and is therefore the most appropriate figure on which to base projected growth. Staff base the estimate on building permits by dwelling type issued since 2001, net of demolitions, adjusted for changes in the vacancy rate and for ongoing declines in average household size. It is important to note that the figure selected for the base year of the projection does not affect the amount of growth projected.
The key assumption of the projection is the level of net in-migration to the city. Currently, net migration accounts for about two-thirds of our population growth; the rest comes from "natural increase", the amount by which births exceed deaths. Due to rising deaths as the population ages, by 2031 virtually all growth will be from migration. The majority of migration to Ottawa is from other countries, and this is expected to rise to account for virtually all migration, and hence all population growth, by 2031.
Three growth scenarios were prepared, summarized below. The proposed "Reference Projection", subject to Council approval, will become the basis for the Official Plan review.
Low Projection: This assumes annual net migration of about 5,600 persons, and results in a projection for 2031 of 1,057,000 persons, about 11 per cent lower than the current OP figure for 2021.
Reference Projection: This assumes small increases in net migration of about 0.8 per cent each year, meaning annual migration increases from 7,600 to 8,900 through the projection period. This results in a 2031 figure of 1,136,000, about five per cent lower than the current OP for 2021.
High Projection: This assumes a higher increase in net migration, meaning that migration reaches 12,500 by 2031. This projects a 2031 population of 1,207,000, slightly above the current projection for 2021.
Results of the three scenarios are summarized in Table 1 below compared to the estimated 2006 population.
Table 1. Population Projections for 2006 to 2031: The Three Scenarios
|
Projected Population |
2006 Population estimate |
2031 Projection |
Growth 2006-31 |
% Growth 2006-31 |
|
Low Projection |
870,800 |
1,057,000 |
186,200 |
21.4% |
|
Reference Projection |
870,800 |
1,136,000 |
265,200 |
30.5% |
|
High Projection |
870,800 |
1,207,000 |
336,200 |
38.6% |
As noted in the previous report to Committee, the current projection in the Official Plan for 2021 is a population of 1,192,000. That projection also extended to 2031 and forecast a population for that year of 1,274,000, 46 per cent more than the 2006 population estimate. For comparison, the most recent Ontario government projection for Ottawa, published in 2005, is 1,117,000 for 2031, two per cent lower than the recommended Reference projection. Another comparator is provided by the most recent (2007) projection by the Centre for Spatial Economics, the same consultants who prepared the projections used in the current OP; that projects a growth of 240,000 people between 2006 and 2031, about 25,000 less than the Reference projection.
The new projections also included the Greater Ottawa-Gatineau Area (the metropolitan area including adjacent municipalities in Ontario and Quebec) to take account of the wider economic area and its commutershed. Projections for the city of Gatineau have been revised upward following a detailed review with Gatineau staff. The population of the Greater Ottawa-Gatineau Area, estimated at 1,307,000 people in mid-2006, is now projected at 1,734,000 in 2031 based on the Ottawa Reference Projection. Although adjacent areas outside of Ottawa will also grow, the share of population accounted for by Ottawa is projected to decline only slightly, from 66.6 per cent in 2006 to 65.5 per cent in 2031. Even with this small decline, Ottawa's share in 2031 would still be marginally higher than it was in 1976, when it stood at 65.4 per cent.
Projections of Ottawa households, total housing requirements including allowance for vacancies and replacement of demolished units, and employment are summarized in Table 2 based on the Reference Projection.
Table 2. Reference Projection of Households, Housing Units and Employment
|
|
2006 |
2031 |
Growth 2006-31 |
% Growth 2006-31 |
|
Households |
351,000 |
496,000 |
145,000 |
41.3% |
|
Housing Units |
355,000 |
505,000 |
150,000 |
42.3% |
|
Employment * |
530,000 |
703,000 |
173,000 |
32.6% |
* employment by place of work
The projections were peer reviewed by Hemson Consulting Limited. Their review concluded, in summary, that the “overall forecast method for population, housing and employment are sound approaches based on established techniques and standard methods in the industry. Where methods and approaches have been developed to address specific characteristics of Ottawa (such as addressing migration within a metropolitan area straddling a provincial boundary), the methods are reasonable and supportable. The total population, household and employment forecasts for the City to 2031 are a reasonable outlook for growth in the City and represent a sound basis for long-term infrastructure and land use planning in the City”.
They note, however, three matters “on which we would recommend caution be used”:
1. The 2006 base year population is uncertain. They note that most observers are of the view that undercoverage is higher in the 2006 Census than in previous years, but that undercoverage studies are a year away from completion and a revision to the 2006 figure may be warranted when that information becomes available. They also note that the issue has no significant effect on the projected increment of population growth.
2. The projected housing propensities, in their view, somewhat overstate the shift to apartments away from single detached units. They advise while that the effect on the overall housing forecast to 2031 is not large enough to warrant an immediate revision, they agree with the statement in the report that dwelling propensities be reviewed at a later stage of the OP review.
3. The forecast increase in labour force participation rates among older workers is cautioned as, in their view (which they note may be a minority opinion among demographers and economists), few will choose to work longer. They conclude, however, that the effect on total forecast labour force is very small and that no revision is recommended at this point. Labour force trends among older workers will continue to be monitored to inform future projection updates.
A copy of their complete report is included as Document 2.
Full details of the projections are contained in Document 1, "Growth Projections for Ottawa: Prospects for Population, Housing and Jobs 2006-2031", November 2007. This is available in both English and French at the City Hall Client Service Centre (publication #9-22 and #9-22f, respectively).
CITY
STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS
This report satisfies the following City Strategic Directions:
F2 Respect the existing urban fabric, neighbourhood form and the limits of existing hard services, so that new growth is integrated seamlessly with established communities.
F3 Encourage the development of existing employment lands to promote job creation and minimize infrastructure costs.
F4 Ensure that City infrastructure required for new growth is built or improved as needed to serve the growth.
A public information meeting on the draft projections was held on September 17, 2007 from 6 to 9 p.m. at City Hall. This session was attended by approximately 40 people from a variety of backgrounds, including a number of Community Associations. The projections were also discussed with the Environmental Advisory Committee, the Business Advisory Committee, and members of the Ottawa-Carleton Homebuilders Association and the Building Owners and Managers Association. Copies of the report were also sent to all adjacent municipalities and to local school boards. Comments received from all of these are summarized below.
At its meeting of October 11, the
Environmental Advisory Committee (EAC) passed a motion which supported the
recommended projection. The
EAC motion will be submitted to Planning and Environment Committee as a
separate report.
Comments received during consultation are summarized as follows with responses.
Comment:
The
projections should use Statistics Canada’s 2006 population estimate of 840,100
rather than the staff estimate of 870,800.
Response:
It is important to recognize that the amount of growth projected for 2006 to 2031 is not affected by which population figure is used for 2006 (model results differ by only 280 persons). As noted in a previous report to Committee, staff have serious concerns with the degree of undercoverage in the 2006 Census and are currently working with Statistics Canada on a detailed review of specific geographic areas. In summary, the City issued building permits for almost 31,800 new dwelling units in the interval between the 2001 and 2006 Censi, a figure corroborated by the number of housing completions reported by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. In contrast, the Census reported an increase of only 19,123 dwelling units “occupied by usual residents”, a difference of over 12,000. Until the review is completed and a better understanding of the issue is available, staff are of the opinion that the population estimate based on building permits, adjusted for the factors described above, provides the most accurate estimate of the number of people using City services, and therefore is the best figure on which to base the projections. If it is concluded that the 2006 estimate of 870,800 should be lower, this can be addressed as part of the amendment that updates the projections in the Official Plan. This general approach was supported by Hemson Consulting’s peer review.
Comment:
The
projections are promoting urban sprawl in adjacent Ontario communities outside
of Ottawa.
Response:
The projections include areas adjacent to Ottawa in Ontario and Quebec because these are part of the greater economic area and are a growing source of commuters working in Ottawa. The projections are certainly not intended to encourage growth in these areas, but are simply recognizing the reality of what has been happening and appears likely will continue to happen. That growth is primarily a product of ongoing widenings of provincial highways, lower housing costs (for which commuters “pay” in the form of longer travel distances), and the fact that as cities grow they spread out. The peer review concluded the assumptions were reasonable and reflect the “normally expected pattern of growth with a metropolitan area of this kind.”
Comment:
Projections
for the city of Gatineau appear too low.
Response:
City staff have been working with Gatineau staff on a detailed review of the Gatineau projection. This resulted in a revision to the 2031 population, from 292,000 to 310,000. Because there was no change to projections for other areas, the Gatineau share of the Greater Ottawa-Gatineau Area increased, from 17.0 per cent to 17.9 per cent of the total. Conversely, Ottawa’s 2031 share fell, from 66.2 per cent to 65.5 per cent.
Comment:
The
projections do not address growth in the rural area.
Response:
The projections are only for the entire city at this point in the process. The question of how growth will be distributed across the rural area and sub-areas of the urban area is an issue that will be discussed and debated in 2008 as the OP review progresses.
Comment:
We have not
discussed the implications of an aging population.
Response:
The covering report to the September 25 meeting of Planning and Environment Committee provided a summary of some of the major effects of population aging over the next quarter century. However, the full implications of this demographic shift are many and cover a wide range of subjects, from health care and social services to pensions, the economy, transportation, housing, immigration, recreation, and many others. The report focuses on the effects of aging on the primary aspects of what the Official Plan deals with, which are housing and employment. Detailed analysis beyond these chief concerns is beyond the scope of the projections update and is most appropriately done by subject matter experts in the various fields affected.
Comment:
The report
should have a bibliography.
Response:
A
bibliography has been included in the final report.
Comment:
Accurate
projections are impossible, as shown by the last projections adopted in 2001.
Response:
There is no doubt that developing a sound projection is a challenging exercise, one that has been described as a combination of science and art. Some past projections have been quite accurate; for example, projections based on the 1986 Census and adopted as Amendment 22 to the Regional Official Plan in 1990, were within 74 people of the 2001 Census count. The 2001 projections were, in retrospect, overly influenced by the high tech boom that peaked at the time they were developed. Understanding recent events in context is one of the principles of good projections, but it is not always apparent what that context is. The best way to address the uncertainty inherent in any projection is to have a good understanding of the community for which the projection is being prepared, monitor actual growth closely after the projection is adopted, and revisit the forecast at regular intervals to correct deviations. The provincial policy to review Official Plans at five-year intervals ensures that adjustments will be made regularly.
Comment:
We should look
longer than 2031. The city should be planning for at least 50 years.
Response:
Provincial policy restricts the City’s Official Plan to a maximum of 20 years, although the Ministry of Municipal Affairs has allowed the current update to extend to 2031. For that reason, the current effort is concentrated on projections to that point. There is the intention, however, to look beyond 2031, perhaps up to 2050 or 2060, as one of the steps to be undertaken in 2008. This work would necessarily be outside of the OP review.
Comment:
Ottawa will
not grow; we should be planning for zero growth.
Response:
Large cities are recognized as the engines of growth in modern economies, and the majority of population growth in Canada is occurring in its major urban centres, one of which is Ottawa. Ottawa will not be among the fastest growing cities in Canada, but it is projected to continue growing at a higher rate than the country overall. Statistics Canada projects that Canada will add 6.5 million people between 2006 and 2031, an increase of 20 per cent. The Reference Projection for Ottawa would see this city attracting about four per cent of overall Canadian growth, for a population increase of about 30 per cent. Even if Council considered it desirable to have no growth, it is doubtful this could be successfully implemented.
Comment:
There are
risks to adopting too conservative a projection.
Response:
There are risks to adopting a projection that
is either significantly too low or too high. The risks of being too low include
not having a sufficient supply of urban land and of under-sizing key pieces of
infrastructure. Being too high risks prematurely designating additional urban
land, thus encouraging lower densities, and spending money on infrastructure
sized beyond actual needs. As noted above, reviewing the projections at least
every five years will avoid ongoing significant deviations in the projection.
Comment:
Which housing projection should be used? The
report currently has two scenarios, one based on housing occupancy patterns
from the 2001 Census and a second, labeled “projected propensities”, based on
possible changes in the choice of housing Ottawans will make in future.
Response:
There are reasons to choose the simple method of applying dwelling type propensities from the 2001 Census to the entire projection period. The main reason is that this method has been used in the past and is generally recognized as the standard methodology.
There are also compelling reasons to choose the projected propensities approach. As the report discusses, dwelling propensities from the Census provide a picture of the city’s entire housing stock, representing 175 years of construction. A major shortcoming of this is illustrated by the propensity for townhouses. Census data do not take account of the burgeoning popularity of townhouses over the last twenty years, and consequently using 2001 propensities significantly underestimates townhouse demand. The 2001 propensities do not reflect current market trends and they also cannot reflect how market preferences might evolve over the projection period, 25 years into the future.
The projected propensities assume a shift from both single detached and apartments to townhouses, a direction reflected in recent market trends. A detailed discussion of the factors supporting this hypothesis can be found in the main report
A decision on what housing type projections should be used is not necessary at this point, as the recommendation to committee and Council speaks only to the total number of projected households, not the type of dwelling they will choose. The issue will continue to be discussed with the homebuilding industry and others in the coming months. In light of comments in the peer review, a third alternative will likely be developed.
Comment:
There is not enough urban land designated for
the amount of growth projected.
Response:
Once the growth projection for the OP review is
established, an analysis of urban land requirements will be undertaken. A
discussion paper on this topic will be released in the spring of 2008. If that
analysis concludes there is a need to designate additional urban land, it will
be based on a set of evaluation criteria developed as part of a public process.
Approval of the report has no direct funding implication but will have an impact on future review of the Long Range Financial Plan, Development Charge Background Study and various Operating and Capital Budgets.
SUPPORTING DOCUMENTATION
Document 1 Growth Projections for Ottawa: Prospects for Population, Housing and Jobs 2006-2031 (distributed separately and on file with the City Clerk).
Document 2 Peer review report by Hemson Consulting Ltd. (distributed separately and on file with the City Clerk).
Document 1 is
available in both English and French. Document 2 is available in English only.
The City of Ottawa may translate this document or parts thereof on request.
Requests for translation should be forwarded to Ian Cross at
Ian.Cross@ottawa.ca or (613) 580-2424, ext. 21595 or to the French Language
Services Division at DSF-FLSD@ottawa.ca or (613) 580‑2424, ext.
21536.
DISPOSITION
Staff to use the Reference projection approved by Council as the basis for the Official Plan review and updates to the Transportation Master Plan and Infrastructure Master Plan.