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10. 2011 CENSUS RESULTS AND RELATION TO
POPULATION PROJECTIONS RÉSULTATS DU RECENSEMENT DE 2011 ET RAPPORT AVEC LES
PROJECTIONS DÉMOGRAPHIQUES |
Committee
recommendation
That Council receive this report
for information purposes.
Recommandation DU Comité
Que le Conseil prenne
connaissance de ce rapport.
Documentation
1. Deputy City Manager's report, Planning and
Infrastructure, dated 27 March 2012 (ACS2012-PAI-PGM-0099)
.
Report to/Rapport au :
Comité de
l'urbanisme
and Council
/ et au Conseil
27 March 2012 / le 27 mars 2012
Submitted by/Soumis par : Nancy Schepers,
Deputy City Manager, Directrice municipale adjointe, Planning and Infrastructure/Urbanisme et Infrastructure
Contact Person/Personne-ressource : Richard Kilstrom,
Manager/Gestionnaire, Policy Development and Urban Design/Élaboration de la
politique et conception urbaine, Planning and Growth Management/Urbanisme et
Gestion de la croissance Élaboration de la politique et conception urbaine
(613) 580-2424 x22653,
Richard.Kilstrom@ottawa.ca
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SUBJECT: |
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OBJET : |
RÉSULTATS DU RECENSEMENT DE
2011 ET RAPPORT AVEC LES PROJECTIONS DÉMOGRAPHIQUES |
REPORT
RECOMMENDATION
That
Planning Committee recommend Council receive this report for information
purposes.
RECOMMANDATION DU RAPPORT
Que le Comité
de l’urbanisme recommande au Conseil de prendre connaissance de ce rapport.
BACKGROUND
Statistics Canada released the first
data from the 2011 Census, counts of total population and dwelling units, on
February 8, 2012. The 2011 Census
population of Ottawa was 883,391, a growth of 8.8 per cent from the 2006 Census.
The population of the Ottawa-Gatineau Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) was 1,133,633,
representing 9.1 per cent growth from 2006.
Ottawa continues to be
Canada's fourth largest city in census population, behind Toronto, Montreal and
Calgary, and Ottawa-Gatineau the fourth largest CMA, behind Toronto, Montreal
and Vancouver.
Additional information on the 2011 Census is available at the following
link:
http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/index-eng.cfm
DISCUSSION
Undercounting in
the 2006 Census
Staff identified a concern
with apparent undercounting in the 2006 Census in a report to the Planning and
Environment Committee meeting of April 24, 2007 (linked below).
http://ottawa.ca/calendar/ottawa/citycouncil/pec/2007/04-24/ACS2007-PTE-POL-0024%20ENGLISH.htm
The primary issue with the 2006
Census centred on the growth in occupied dwelling
units. The Census showed an increase of only 19,113 occupied units in Ottawa
between the 2001 Census and 2006 Census. In contrast, Canada Mortgage and
Housing Corporation (CMHC) recorded almost 30,600 housing completions during
the same period. Similarly, building permits indicated an increase of about
31,800 occupied units (permits are typically slightly higher than CMHC because
they include units created via additions and conversions). It therefore
appeared the 2006 Census had potentially omitted a significant number of occupied
units, in the range of 10,000 or more, resulting in a substantial undercount of
population and households.
The 2011 Census reported significantly
higher growth between 2006 and 2011 compared to the 2001-06 census period. Households
(occupied dwelling units) increased by 6.3% (+19,113) between 2001 and 2006,
but grew by 10.1% (+32,356) between 2006 and 2011. However, growth in CMHC
completions, households from permits, and total
census dwellings (including not occupied) show close to a 50-50 split
between the two time periods. When the entire 2001-2011 decade is compared
between census counts, housing completions and permits data, the undercount
issues identified in the 2006 Census appear to have been largely resolved in
the 2011 Census.
Table 1 summarizes the
increase in census total dwellings and occupied dwellings compared to CMHC
completions and new households estimated from building permits for the periods
2001-06 and 2006-11.
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Table 1.
Census Dwellings and Households Compared to Completions and Permits,
2001-2011 |
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Census Total Dwellings* |
Census Occupied Dwellings** |
CMHC Housing Completions |
Occupied Units from Building Permits |
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Period |
Growth |
Growth |
Growth |
Growth |
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2001-06 |
30,600 |
19,113 |
30,592 |
31,795 |
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2006-11 |
29,485 |
32,356 |
29,385 |
28,570 |
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2001-11 |
60,085 |
51,469 |
59,977 |
60,365 |
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*
total including not occupied |
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**
equivalent to households |
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Post-Censal
Estimates
Statistics Canada reports two
sets of numbers for population; the census population, reported every five
years, and the “post-censal estimate”, reported annually. Post-censal figures
are adjusted to compensate for undercounts in the census because inevitably
some people are not enumerated. Typically, the census undercount is in the
range of three to four per cent. Final numbers are not established until two
years after the census, so at this point we do not know the undercount for the
2011 Census.
Ottawa’s 2006 Census
population was 812,129. The final post-censal estimate issued in 2008 restated
the city’s 2006 population as 845,917, reflecting a 4.2 per cent undercount. Applying
the same percentage undercount as in 2006 to the new census produces a
population estimate for 2011 of about 920,500 (Table 2).
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Table
2. Census Population Compared to
Post-Censal Estimate and City Estimates |
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Census |
Census Pop'n. |
Increase |
Post-censal Pop'n. * |
Increase |
% above census |
City est. Pop'n. |
Increase |
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2001 |
774,072 |
- |
806,972 |
- |
4.3% |
806,560 |
- |
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2006 |
812,129 |
38,057 |
845,917 |
38,945 |
4.2% |
870,757 |
64,197 |
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2011 |
883,391 |
71,262 |
920,493 |
74,576 |
4.2% |
922,046 |
51,289 |
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2001-11 |
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109,319 |
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113,521 |
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115,486 |
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*
assuming the same undercount rate in 2011 as in 2006 |
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The City’s estimate of
population for mid-2011 is 922,046 using the "dwelling occupancy"
method. This is based on the 2001 post-censal estimate and adds population each
subsequent year derived from new housing units issued building permits, adjusting
for demolitions, vacancy rates, construction time and average adjusted
household size by dwelling type. For 2006 the City estimate was higher than
Statistics Canada’s post-censal population by 24,840 or 2.9%. Owing to concerns
with 2006 Census undercounting, staff based the current 2006-2031 population
projections, adopted by Council in 2007, on the City estimate of the 2006 population,
not Statistics Canada’s preliminary post-censal estimate for 2006.
As noted, assuming the same
undercount in the 2011 Census as existed in 2006 would indicate an Ottawa
population of about 920,500. The difference between the post-censal population
and the City estimate of population for mid-2011 is only 1,550 or 0.2%.
Population
Projections
The population projections contained
in the Official Plan (adopted in OPA 76 and approved by the Ontario Municipal
Board (OMB) in 2011) extend to 2031. As outlined above, using the 4.2%
benchmark to correct for Census undercount, Ottawa’s mid-2011 population would
be about 920,500. The Official Plan projection called for a population of 923,000
at that point. The difference of 2,500 (0.3%) is minimal. The projection is
also tracking the City estimate of population closely, with a difference of
less than 1,000 or 0.1%.
RURAL
IMPLICATIONS
There are no direct rural implications
associated with this report.
CONSULTATION
As this
report concerns research and analysis matters, no public consultation was
undertaken.
COMMENTS BY
THE WARD COUNCILLORS
Not applicable – City-wide report.
LEGAL
IMPLICATIONS
There are no direct legal implications
associated with this report.
RISK
MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONS
The city’s growth is monitored by planning
staff on an ongoing basis. Consequently the risk that Council’s approved
population projections will go significantly awry before corrective action can
be taken is minimal.
FINANCIAL
IMPLICATIONS
There
are no financial implications associated with this information report.
ACCESSIBILITY
IMPACT
There are no accessibility issues
associated with this report.
TECHNOLOGY
IMPLICATIONS
There are no direct technical implications associated with this
report.
TERM OF COUNCIL PRIORITIES
This report is consistent with the
City Strategic Plan objective to make sustainable choices in planning and
decision-making.
SUPPORTING
DOCUMENTATION
N/A
DISPOSITION