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4. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN
PROCESS PROJET D’ADAPTATION AU
CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE |
Committee recommendationS as amended
That Council:
1.
Receive this report
for information;
2.
Direct that climate
change mitigation and adaptation planning be made a key mandate of the Staff
Environment Working Group; and
3. Direct staff to review the inclusion
of a section titled “Climate Change Adaptation Consideration” in all Planning
and Environment Committee reports.
RecommandationS modifiÉeS du
Comité
Que le Conseil :
1. reçoive ce rapport à titre informatif;
2. dirige que des mandats principaux du
Groupe de travail sur l’environnement soit la planification de l’atténuation du
changement climatique et l’adaptation à ses effets; et
3. demande au personnel de
se pencher sur l’éventuel ajout d’une section intitulée « considérations
relatives à l’adaptation aux changements climatiques » dans tous les rapports
du comité de l’urbanisme et de l’environnement.
Documentation
1.
Deputy
City Manager's report Planning, Transit
and the Environment dated 25 June 2008 (ACS2008-PTE-ECO-0013).
2. Extract of Draft Minutes, 8 July 2008.
Report to/Rapport au :
Planning and
Environment Committee
Comité de l'urbanisme et de l'environnement
and Council / et au Conseil
25 June 2008 / le 25 juin 2008
Submitted by/Soumis par : Nancy Schepers, Deputy City Manager
Directrice municipale adjointe,
Planning, Transit and the
Environment
Urbanisme, Transport en commun et
Environnement
Contact Person/Personne ressource : Carol Christensen,
Manager/Gestionnaire
Economic
and Environmental Sustainability/Direction de la viabilité économique et de la
durabilité de l’environnement
(613)
580-2424 x21610, Carol.Christensen@ottawa.ca
SUBJECT:
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CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN Process
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OBJET :
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Projet D’Adaptation au
changement climatique
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REPORT RECOMMENDATIONS
That the Planning and Environment Committee and Council:
1.
Receive this report
for information; and
2.
Direct that climate
change mitigation and adaptation planning be made a key mandate of the Staff
Environment Working Group.
RECOMMANDATIONS DU RAPPORT
Que le Comité de l’urbanisme et de
l’environnement et le Conseil :
1. reçoivent
ce rapport à titre informatif; et
2. dirige
que des mandats principaux du Groupe de travail sur l’environnement soit la
planification de l’atténuation du changement climatique et l’adaptation à ses
effets.
BACKGROUND
The Climate Change Adaptation Plan originates from the Air Quality and Climate Change Management Plan approved by Council in 2005. Planning, Transit and the Environment is the lead department with consultations to take place with all other departments as the plan goes forward. This report describes the output of the climate change models for Ottawa along with the expected impacts and presents the process and phases for the development of an adaptation plan.
Climate change is causing increases in the frequency and intensities of weather phenomena around the world. In Ottawa the average temperature and precipitation as well as extreme events are expected to increase due to climate change.
Mitigation of global warming involves taking actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptation to global warming consists of initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems against actual or expected climate change effects.
Our vulnerability to climate change impacts is dependant in part upon the effectiveness and timing of adaptation measures and our coping ability.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a U.N.-sponsored group of more then 2,000 scientists from more than 100 countries, has concluded with high confidence that human caused warming over the last three decades has had a noticeable influence on many physical and biological systems. They have also established that the impacts of climate change are already evident in the past five years.
Ouranos, an international consortium on understanding adaptation resulting from climate change for the North American continent, has run numerous IPCC climate models for different parts of Canada. The Ontario Government has also run models to project climate change for Ontario, at a smaller scale. These models show the following vulnerable areas for Ottawa.
The top Canadian scientists believe that if current policy trends continue with minimum greenhouse gas mitigations then the warming will be much more rapid, meaning the predictions for 2080-2100 would occur about 30 years earlier.
Summers in Ottawa are expected to be 4.5-5 °C warmer and precipitation 10 per cent higher between 2080-2100 according to Ouranos if no mitigation of greenhouse gasses occurs. In the winter, the temperature would be 6-7°C warmer and precipitation 24-35 per cent higher. If some mitigation actions were taken, Ouranos predicts that the summers would be 2-3°C warmer with up to a five‑per cent increase in precipitation and the winters would be 3-4°C warmer with a 10‑20‑per cent increase in precipitation.
More recent predictions from the Ontario Government without mitigation estimated for 2041‑2070 for Eastern Ontario summer temperatures that would increase by 2-3°C, with increases of up to 4°C in winter, and increases in precipitation for both seasons of up to 10 per cent. Their later forecasts for 2071-2100 are similar to Ouranos’ projections except with lower precipitation increases.
The precise impacts are difficult to predict but the general direction of change is clear. The consequences of these climate changes to Ottawa have been modeled and suggest the following negative impacts as presented in Table 1 below.
All the above impacts have economic, social and environmental consequences. Some can be mitigated; others adapted to, or their impacts lessened. Ottawa has already, on a smaller scale, begun to feel what these impacts might feel like. Ottawa has seen an average temperature increase of 1°C over the last 30 years and higher precipitation in the form of rain at the expense of snow. This increase is twice the global change for the same period (0.5°C). The winter of 2001/2002 was on average 5.1°C warmer than the 1961-90 average. That same season presented the shortest operating season for the Rideau Canal skating surface– not predicted as a constant until after 2030.
DISCUSSION
Climate Change
Adaptation for Ottawa
The City of Ottawa has recognized the importance of adapting to climate change. Departments have already begun integrating climate change impacts into their planning exercises and operations.
For example, Surface Operations has already purchased sidewalk equipment to remove ice after noticing changes that have produced more icy conditions in winter.
The City of Ottawa Extreme Weather Committee has shown initiative by establishing Heat and Smog Action Plans in 2004. Implementation of these plans mitigates the impacts of heat waves on vulnerable populations such as young children, seniors and people using shelters, rooming houses or live in high-rise apartment buildings without air conditioning. During extreme heat events public health nurses visit people living in high-rise buildings to ensure they are able to access cool environments. This committee is made up of City Departments and community partners. Information is available in eight languages on how to “Beat the Heat” and keep healthy during heat events. Rainbow Cinemas has partnered with the City to offer free movie tickets as a way for vulnerable people to cool down, and fans have been obtained for distribution to rooming house residents thanks to a grant from Project Clear Skies at the Ottawa Airport. Occupational Health and Safety staff also encourage all departments to follow heat and cold and West Nile virus guidelines for City of Ottawa workers.
Both Surface Operations and Environmental Sustainability have hosted educational events in partnership with Environment Canada and the Canadian Council of Professional Engineers, respectively, for staff on climate change and how it will affect operations.
As well the City of Ottawa has secured funding from the Federation of Canadian Municipalities, matched by us, to develop ways to build a resilient and sustainable community as a proactive risk management measure. The initiative Choosing our Future: An Integrated Approach to Building a Sustainable and Resilient National Capital Region will include three integrated long-term plans: Sustainability Plan; Mitigation and Prevention Plan; and Community Energy Plan. While the focus of this work is climate change mitigation, the initiative is building on existing work such as the Climate Change Adaptation Plan that will ensure that the City has the capacity to respond to disasters and change thereby decreasing its vulnerability and limiting potential negative impacts of climate change.
Climate Change
Adaptation Plan
The following is a description of the scope of an adaptation plan that will investigate and evaluate the priority vulnerabilities and risks faced by the City of Ottawa due to climate change and then adapt or reduce these impacts through policy responses.
The plan will consist of three sections. The first part will investigate which of the City’s major sectors will be affected. The second will identify to what degree these sectors will be affected based on their existing adaptive capacity and the last component of the plan will deal with the type of policies that can be implemented to reduce the impact of climate change to these sectors.
Departments will be presented with the effects of climate change and will be asked to provide feedback on the ways their daily business operations will be impacted, what they have done to mitigate the impacts and how they might adapt to the changing conditions. This feedback will allow for the creation of a comprehensive adaptation plan.
For example, departments responsible for buildings would need to be prepared for the additional cooling requirements, cracking on the buildings made of brick or concrete, and extra wear and tear on roofing systems. Departments in charge of infrastructure would need to be prepared for the increased water usage that would increase the wear and tear on the water distribution system. Parks and Recreation department would need to be prepared for an increase in the demand on pools, spray pads and wading pools.
The level of preparedness to deal with these changes would stretch their ability to adapt. Actions that could be undertaken to reduce the impacts could include the installation of green roofs to reduce the cooling requirements of buildings. This would also require additional funding since green roofs are substantially more expensive to install.
For example, departments that deal with surface operations would be affected by an increased amount of freeze-thaw events due to the shoulder seasons (fall and spring) extending in length that would create an increased number of potholes that would require repair. Their adaptive capacity is based on the size of their allotted budget for repairs or the technological adaptation of filling material. An example of a policy response could be a change in engineering design for alternative road building or pothole filling.
This adaptation plan will be developed in consultation with all the affected departments. This includes integrating climate change into the Official Plan, zoning (e.g. height allowance for solar panels), and design and planning guidelines (e.g. drive thru’s) to name a few. Response policies that integrate climate change may include:
Emergency Response Plans
Human Health Response Plans
Drought Contingency Plans
Water Conservation Measures
Development setbacks from shorelines
Engineering Design Considerations
Transportation Construction Standards
Natural Environment Conservation
Tourism and Recreation Plans
Occupational Health and Safety Guidelines
The first two parts of the plan will be completed in 2009. The third part will be ongoing. No additional resources are required. Given the wide range of departments that are affected, the Environment Working Group, which includes representation from most of the affected Branches, is well positioned to coordinate climate change planning across the corporation.
The precise impacts of climate change in Ottawa are hard to predict with certainty and will depend on the actual rise in temperatures and precipitation experienced. It is clear, however, that these types of impacts will occur to some degree and that we need to build in some resiliency as a proactive risk management measure.
CITY STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS
The Climate Change Adaptation Plan Process responds to Solid Waste and Environmental objective D3 – Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 20 percent by 2012.
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATIONS
The Climate Change Adaptation Plan Process will provide individual response policies that will mitigate our vulnerabilities, at the scale of the City as a corporation, the community and natural systems.
RURAL IMPLICATIONS
The Climate Change Adaptation Plan will cover both urban and rural areas.
CONSULTATION
No public consultation has taken place on this report. Prior consultation for the Environmental Strategy and the Air Quality and Climate Change Management Plan supported this initiative.
FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS
There are no financial implications to this report. The Adaptation Plan is to be developed within the existing resources.
DISPOSITION
Air, Energy and Corporate Policy will work together with all effected departments, under the leadership of the Environment Working Group, to develop the Climate Change Adaptation Plan.