6.                   2006 CENSUS RESULTS

 

RÉSULTATS DU RECENSEMENT DE 2006

 

 

 

Committee recommendation

 

That Council receive this report for information purposes.

 

 

Recommandation du Comité

 

Que le Conseil prenne connaissance du présent rapport à fin d’information.

 

 

Documentation

 

1.      Deputy City Manager's report Planning, Transit and the Environment dated
2 April 2007 (ACS2007-PTE-POL-0024).

 

2.   Extract of Draft Minutes, 24 April 2007, follows the French version of the report.

 

 

Report to/Rapport au :

 

Planning and Environment Committee

Comité de l'urbanisme et de l'environnement

 

and Council / et au Conseil

 

2 April 2007 / Le 2 avril 2007

 

Submitted by/Soumis par : Nancy Schepers, Deputy City Manager /

Directrice municipale adjointe,

Planning, Transit and the Environment / Urbanisme, Transport en commun et Environnement

 

Contact Person/Personne Ressource : Richard Kilstrom, Manager / Gestionnaire, Community Planning and Design / Aménagement et Conception communautaires, Planning, Environment and Infrastructure Policy / Politiques d'urbanisme, d'environnement et d'infrastructure

(613) 580-2424, 22653  Richard.Kilstrom@ottawa.ca

 

City-Wide

Ref N°: ACS2007-PTE-POL-0024

 

 

SUBJECT:

2006 Census Results

 

 

OBJET :

RÉSULTATS DU RECENSEMENT DE 2006

 

 

REPORT RECOMMENDATION

 

That the Planning and Environment Committee recommend Council receive this report for information purposes. 

 

 

RECOMMANDATION DU RAPPORT

 

Que le Comité de l’urbanisme et de l’environnement recommande au Conseil de prendre connaissance du présent rapport.

 

 

BACKGROUND

 

Statistics Canada undertakes the Census every five years. Initial counts of total population, dwelling units and households from the 2006 Census, conducted on May 16, 2006, were released on March 13 this year.

 

The 2006 Census population of Ottawa was 812,129, a growth of 4.9 per cent or 38,057 people from the 2001 Census figure of 774,072. The population of the Ottawa-Gatineau Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) was 1,130,761, 5.9 per cent higher than 2001.

 

Ottawa continues to be Canada's fourth largest city, behind Toronto, Montreal and Calgary, and Ottawa-Gatineau the fourth largest CMA, behind Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver.

 

Population change in major areas of the city is summarized in Figure 1.

 

Figure 1.  Population Change by Area, 2001-06

 

Population in Major Areas of Ottawa, 2001-06

Source: Derived from 2006 Census

 

2006

 

2001

 

Population

Change

 

% Change

 

Inside Greenbelt

484,879

501,900

-17,021

-3.4%

Kanata

67,015

56,125

10,890

19.4%

Stittsville

19,244

15,040

4,204

28.0%

South Nepean

54,982

37,680

17,302

45.9%

Riverside South

6,807

2,685

4,122

153.5%

Leitrim

1,333

220

1,113

505.9%

Orléans

95,491

86,205

9,286

10.8%

Total Urban

729,751

699,855

29,896

4.3%

 

 

 

 

 

Rural

82,378

74,220

8,158

11.0%

 

 

 

 

 

Total Ottawa

812,129

774,075

38,054

4.9%

 

 

DISCUSSION

 

Statistics Canada reports two sets of numbers for population, the Census and the “post-censal estimate”. Post-censal figures are adjusted to compensate for undercounts in the Census because inevitably some people are not enumerated. Typically, the Census undercount is in the range of three to four per cent. All major municipalities, as well as the Province of Ontario, now use post-censal population numbers for their planning, because that most closely matches the actual population for which cities provide services.

 

In 2001, Ottawa’s Census population was 774,072. The final post-censal estimate corrected for undercounts restated the city’s 2001 population as 806,560, reflecting a 4.2 per cent undercount. Using four per cent as a benchmark, the post-censal 2006 population is estimated at 845,000. However, the undercount could be larger in 2006 based on the fact that Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) recorded almost 30,600 new housing completions in Ottawa during the period between the 2001 and 2006 Censii, and the City's building permits show an increase of close to 31,800 for a similar period (permits are typically slightly higher than CMHC for a variety of reasons).


 

In comparison, the Census reports an increase of only 19,123 households in Ottawa for the same period. It therefore appears that the Census may have omitted a significant number of Ottawa households, in the range of 10,000 or more, resulting in a substantial undercount of population and dwellings. Final estimates of coverage error for the 2006 Census will be released by Statistics Canada in September 2008.

 

Using the "Dwelling Occupancy" method, which is based on the annual number of new residential units from building and demolition permits, vacancy rate, and average adjusted household size by dwelling type, staff had estimated the 2006 mid-year population of the city of Ottawa to be 870,761. This estimate differs by 25,761 from the estimated post-censal figure (based on a four per cent undercount factor), but much of this may be due to the undercount problem discussed above.

 

By area of the city (Figure 1) the Census data confirm that the largest amount of growth has been in South Nepean, followed by Kanata, Orleans and the rural area. It appears that most of the Census undercount was concentrated in areas inside the Greenbelt. Building permits indicate an increase of 9,935 occupied units inside the Greenbelt between mid-2001 and mid-2006, while the Census records an actual decrease of 1,425 households.

 

Population Projections

 

Population projections are established for a twenty-year projection period every five years when the City's Official Plan is reviewed. The City's population projections are based on post-censal estimates, hence any direct comparison of projections with Census data would provide an inaccurate picture of how projections are tracking. To correctly track the projection, the post-censal estimate must be used. As outlined above, using the four per cent benchmark to correct for Census undercount, Ottawa’s population would be about 845,000 as of mid-2006. The Official Plan projection called for a population of 897,366 at that point. The difference is 52,366 residents, lower by 5.8 per cent.

 

The Research and Forecasting section of the Planning, Environment and Infrastructure Policy Branch will be revising the projections after detailed age/sex data from the 2006 Census becomes available in July. Revised projections are scheduled to come before Planning and Environment Committee in October, in time to inform the 2008 Official Plan review.  

 

 

CONSULTATION

 

As this report concerns research and analysis matters, no public consultation was undertaken.

 

 

FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS

 

N/A

 

 

 

SUPPORTING DOCUMENTATION

 

Additional information on the 2006 Census is available through the Statistics Canada web site at http://www.statcan.ca.

 

 

DISPOSITION

 

Staff will continue to analyze 2006 Census results as these are released over the next 18 months. The new population counts, in combination with age/sex data coming in July, will form the basis of revised growth forecasts for Ottawa.